论文部分内容阅读
本文运用结构向量自回归SVAR模型,对2003～2011年间我国各项政策工具在调节贸易收支方面的综合效力展开实证分析,并结合理论文献充分阐述各项政策发挥效力的传导机制,力图为中国当前政策搭配决策提供科学的理论与实证依据。本文主要结论是,在调节贸易收支失衡方面,我国货币政策比财政政策更加有效。脉冲响应函数显示,扩张性货币政策能够有效缩小贸易顺差,而且货币政策冲击在10个月后达到最大效力,2年后达到最大累积效力。财政支出扩张对贸易顺差有“先抑制再推动”的作用,但政策效力十分有限。人民币名义汇率的正向冲击能够对贸易收支造成显著的“倒J曲线效应”。与传统观点不同,国内要素价格上调在1年半左右的时间窗口不会抑制反而会扩大贸易盈余。上述实证结论支持在外贸减速背景下继续推进包括工资在内的生产要素价格改革,同时建议货币政策制定时应充分考虑对贸易收支的显著影响。
In this paper, structural vector autoregression SVAR model, from 2003 to 2011 China’s policy instruments in the adjustment of trade balance of power comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of empirical analysis, combined with the theoretical literature fully elaborated the various policies to play an effective transmission mechanism, trying to China The current policy with decision-making to provide scientific and empirical evidence. The main conclusion of this paper is that our monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in adjusting trade imbalances. The impulse response function shows that expansionary monetary policy can effectively reduce the trade surplus, and the impact of monetary policy reaches its maximum effect in 10 months and reaches the maximum cumulative effect in 2 years. The expansion of fiscal expenditure on the trade surplus “first inhibit and then promote ” role, but the policy is very limited. The positive impact of the renminbi nominal exchange rate can have a significant “inverse J-curve effect” on trade balances. Different from traditional viewpoints, the increase of domestic factor prices in a time window of about one and a half years will not curb but will increase the trade surplus. The above empirical conclusions support the reform of the price of production factors, including wages, in the context of the deceleration of foreign trade. We also suggest that monetary policy should take full account of the significant impact on trade balance.