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通过对技术创新作用的比较静态分析,阐释了集聚影响增长的理论机制,构建了空间经济增长的群峰型周期结构框架,从理论上统一了“倒U形”“U形”曲线关系等不一致的研究结论。随后,在利用空间赫希曼-赫芬达尔指数(HHI)和空间集中度指数(CR2)定量测度中国25省1990—2013年省域经济空间集聚程度的基础上,借助能同时处理个体效应和内生性问题的面板固定效应工具变量模型,对提出的理论假说进行了实证分析和稳健性检验。结果表明:在其他因素不变时,空间集聚对省域经济增长的影响呈“倒U形”曲线关系;而当创新水平提高和其他控制因素改善时,这一“倒U形”曲线则会向右上位移,不断拓展区域经济增长的潜在上限,形成一种周期性群峰结构;而实际的经济集聚程度则影响区域增长在上限范围内的具体位置,且达致最高增长水平的最优经济集聚程度与创新水平呈正比,过高或过低的集聚程度都不利于增长。
Through the comparative static analysis of the role of technological innovation, this paper explains the theoretical mechanism of agglomeration growth and constructs the peak-type periodic structure framework of spatial economic growth. It theoretically unifies the “inverted U shape” and the “U shape” Curve relationship and other inconsistent research conclusions. Then, based on the spatial Hirschman-Herfindahl index (CRH) and the spatial concentration index (CR2), the spatial economic concentration in the provinces of China in 1990-2013 was quantitatively measured. Endogenous issues panel fixed effects tool variable model, the proposed theoretical hypothesis empirical analysis and robustness test. The results show that spatial agglomeration has an “inverted U” curve relationship with provincial economic growth when other factors remain unchanged. When the level of innovation is improved and other control factors are improved, the “inverted U-shaped” "The curve will shift to the upper right and continuously expand the potential upper limit of regional economic growth to form a cyclical peak structure. However, the actual level of economic agglomeration will affect the specific location of regional growth within the upper limit and achieve the highest level of growth The optimal level of economic agglomeration is proportional to the level of innovation, and the level of agglomeration that is too high or too low is not conducive to growth.