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While the global financial crisis continued to take a toll on societies and politics globally, 2011 has been a year of relentless turmoil and chaos. What underlies these waves of turmoil is the labor pains of the birth of a new international order.
Economic imbalances
Economic growth was severely unbalanced in 2011. The European and U.S. debt crises have gravely delayed the recovery of the world economy. Though the United States raised its debt ceiling after heated debate to avoid default, the Standard & Poor’s rating agency downgraded the credit rating of the United States for the first time.
Meanwhile, the collective action of EU countries in tackling their sovereign debt crisis has been sluggish and ineffective. Austerity measures and welfare cuts will help the countries overcome their current crisis, but they are against the popular will and opposed by opposition parties.
Therefore, economic growth is weak in the entire Western world. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected growth in developed economies in 2011 at merely 1.6 percent.
Emerging economies, however, have become major driving forces behind the recovery of the world economy. Relying on domestic demand and South-South trade, emerging economies have achieved rapid growth. Their growth rate is estimated at 6.4 percent this year. China, in particular, may grow more than 9 percent. The rise of emerging economies has effectively prevented the global economy from a doubledip recession. IMF estimates show the global economy could register a growth rate of 4 percent this year.
Unfortunately, developed countries have resorted to loose monetary policies and pro- tectionism in an attempt to shift their burden to other countries. Their policies have caused trouble for emerging economies and hindered their growth.
Based on the economic situation of 2011, recovery of the global economy in 2012 will be full of uncertainties. Economic growth will continue to be unbalanced with developing countries making rapid strides and developed countries struggling to achieve growth.
Social and political unrest
The international financial crisis has fueled social and political unrest in the Middle East as well as in Europe and North America. Social unrest in the Middle East has brought about the overturn of governments in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. Libya was plunged into a civil war that ended with the overthrow of the Muammar Gaddafi regime. Currently, Syria is faced with great domestic and international pressure.
Profound changes in the Middle East show that the position of the United States as the dominant global leader is in decline. Meanwhile, the influence of Iran and Turkey is on the rise in the region while Israel is more isolated.
Social conflicts and extremism in Europe and the United States also gained ground. A shocking massacre by a right-wing extremist occurred in Norway in July. London experienced alarming riots and the “Occupy Wall Street” movement spread across the United States.
2011, dubbed the “year of global indignation,” revealed three major social problems of the current world.
First, the financial crisis has caused rising income disparities. Living standards of the middle class were severely impacted as their wealth shrank by a wide margin. The“Occupy Wall Street” movement was an example of public anger over U.S. financial institutions and inequality in society.
Second, rapidly developing information technology and globalization have brought people together. With the help of new media and non-state actors, the long-standing corrupt practices of “strongman politics” in the Middle East and North Africa and “crony democracy” in the Western world have been exposed widely to the public. Turmoil in one country can easily spread to other countries.
Third, the unbalanced population and employment structure have aggravated social tensions. The long-term unemployment of young people has made “young malcontents”a common problem of the whole world.
Looking to the future, reconstruction in countries that have experienced regime changes in the Middle East and North Africa will be arduous because of domestic instability and external intervention. While the Middle East undergoes a period of uncertainty, social conflicts may break out again in the Western world.
Emerging vs. industrialized economies
The changing international pattern has spurred competition between two economic power blocs—developed Western countries and emerging countries. The economic growth rate of emerging countries is now several times that of Western countries, and they are taking up an increasingly larger share of the global GDP. In the meantime, the status of Western countries is falling in the wake of their complex social and economic crises.
Emerging countries rely on the BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) platforms, while Western countries rely on the Group of Eight and NATO. The two blocs have competed on a number of issues. For instance, on the Middle East turmoil, BRICS insisted on safeguarding state sovereignty and noninterference in internal affairs while the West intervened in Libya’s civil war through the use of force and sought to dominate the “new Middle East.”
The BRICS also disagreed with the West on the selection of a new IMF managing director and capital injection into the fund with the aim of increasing the voice of developing countries in global economic governance. In addressing global climate change, emerging countries urged industrialized countries to fulfill legally binding greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, while developed countries tried to shun their responsibilities.
In 2012, the two sides will continue to compete in a wide range of areas. And emerging countries will make joint efforts to resist the Western powers’ attempts to transfer their economic crisis to developing countries.
Harsh security situation
The international security situation was severe and complicated in 2011. Regional conflicts continued in hot spots around the world. Turmoil in the Middle East triggered military intervention from Western powers. The United States smartly toppled the Gaddafi regime by virtue of NATO forces. Terrorist activities are constantly on the rise in Afghanistan and its border with Pakistan. The security situation in the region is still worrisome 10 years after the United States launched an antiterrorism war in Afghanistan.
The world arms race remains fierce as many countries are increasing their investment in new military equipment research and development. Though financially strained, the United States has continued to conduct research, development and application of sophisticated weapons, trying to maintain its military supremacy. Russia has vehemently opposed Washington’s deployment of antimissile systems in Europe.
The competition in cyberspace has heated up. The United States has tried to play a dominate role in cyberspace rulemaking. It has also put cyberspace on a par with land, sea, air and outer space as a theater of war.
Non-traditional security challenges were also beyond count in 2011. The March 11 earthquake and tsunami and ensuing radiation leaks in Japan severely impacted the global industrial supply chain. The nuclear disaster has sparked widespread concern over nuclear safety. As many countries consider abandoning nuclear energy, the global energy industry faces adjustments.
Although U.S. forces killed Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden in May, Western countries face mounting threats from homegrown terrorists. In the Middle East and South Asia, terrorist activities remain unchecked.
In addition, the overturn of the Gaddafi regime after it abandoned its nuclear program may complicate efforts to solve nuclear issues in Iran and North Korea.
Changes in Asia Pacific
The rapid development of Asian emerging economies has led to a shift of the world’s geopolitical focus to the east. Major powers are all asserting themselves in the region. The United States has vowed to give priority to the region in the next decade. This year, it took part in the East Asia Summit for the first time after hosting the APEC Summit.
The United States is striving to remodel Asia-Pacific cooperation by promoting the Trans-Pacific Partnership, trying to seize a larger market in the Asia-Pacific region. Employing maritime disputes in East Asia, it is also attempting to seize a dominant position in regional affairs with its military superiority. Washington’s bolstered presence in the Asia Pacific is likely to do more harm than good to regional stability.
Japan has tried to consolidate its alliance with the United States while reaching out to its Asian neighbors to strengthen its influence in the region. Russia, with its military and energy clout, has also expanded its regional interests. To maximize their own interests, ASEAN countries have adopted a “balance of power”strategy in regional affairs.
As the Philippines and Viet Nam attempt to make the South China Sea an international issue, the United States has weighed in, declaring that it has a “national interest.” Japan and India have also gotten involved in oil and gas exploitation in the area.
On the Korean Peninsula, the death of Kim Jong Il has delayed progress on the six party talks. With the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, extremists could become more active in the war-torn country. U.S. air strikes on targets within Pakistan’s borders have badly hurt U.S.-Pakistani relations.