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本文将国库库存、央行票据和外汇占款作为基础货币波动因素,并对2004~2013年十年间月度样本数据,进行方差分解,综合分析各因素结构冲击对基础货币的影响程度。实证结果表明:国库库存和外汇占款受自身波动的影响较大;基础货币自身和国库库存对基础货币变化的贡献程度较高;外汇占款与基础货币之间,外汇占款对基础货币的冲击更明显。
In this paper, treasury stock, central bank bills and foreign exchange purchases are taken as the base currency fluctuations. The monthly sample data from 2004 to 2013 are analyzed by variance, and the impact of various structural shocks on the base currency is analyzed comprehensively. The empirical results show that: treasury stock and foreign exchange accounts for the greater impact of its own fluctuations; the base currency itself and the treasury stock to a higher degree of contribution to changes in the base currency; foreign exchange and base currency, foreign exchange for the base currency The impact is more obvious.