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In this paper, we present a new analytical model for TCP Reno, and this method can also be used in other versions of TCP. The first order two-state Markovian model is used to describe the wireless link, so as to deal with the burst error in wireless links very well. The tineout mechanism of TCP is also considered and a geometric method describes the erponential growth of TCP timeout . Also this method is effective for the study of the growth of TCP transmission window. Analytical results indicate that this model is effective.