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基于生态经济学、统计学和地理学理论,借助物质流分析法(MFA)和指数平滑法(ES),并以碳汇与碳排放计算结果等为分析数据,对2006—2012年银川市生态经济系统中的碳流动进行了分析。结果表明:(1)银川市碳吸收总量为波动增长,碳排放总量保持高速增长。经济系统的碳排放量要远高于生态系统的碳吸收量,生态经济系统碳滞留量过度膨胀。(2)农田和湿地是银川市生态系统的主要碳吸收库。玉米、水稻和小麦的固碳比重较大,人工湿地、湖泊与沼泽的碳储存较多。碳汇空间受非绿色用地挤压,碳吸收量增长缓慢。能源、交通和建筑是银川市三大碳排放源。能源碳排放主要集中在原煤、原油和天然气消耗上,公路货运和施工建筑碳排放增长迅猛。(3)未来5年,银川市碳吸收预估量每年保持3.96%的增长率;碳排放预估量年均增长1140.92×104t,预估增速有所下降,碳排放量将会处于高基准、低增长阶段。银川市经济增长的生态成本较高,经济发展对生态环境的依赖较大,发展方式没有实现低碳转型。
Based on the theories of ecological economics, statistics and geography, using the material flow analysis (MFA) and exponential smoothing (ES), and taking the carbon sink and carbon emission calculation results as the analytical data, Carbon flows in the economic system were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) The total carbon absorption in Yinchuan City was fluctuating and the total amount of carbon emissions maintained a rapid growth. The carbon emissions of the economic system are much higher than the carbon uptake of the ecosystem, and carbon overrun in the eco-economic system is expanding. (2) Farmland and wetland are the major carbon sinks in Yinchuan’s ecosystem. Corn, rice and wheat have a large proportion of carbon sequestration, while constructed wetlands, lakes and marshes have more carbon stocks. Carbon sinks are squeezed by non-green land and carbon uptake is slowly increasing. Energy, transportation and construction are the three major sources of carbon emissions in Yinchuan. Energy Carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the consumption of raw coal, crude oil and natural gas, and carbon emissions from road freight transport and construction buildings have been growing rapidly. (3) In the next five years, the forecast of carbon absorption in Yinchuan City will maintain a growth rate of 3.96% each year; the estimated average amount of carbon emissions will increase by 1140.92 × 104t annually, with the estimated growth rate declining and the carbon emission will be at a high level Low-growth stage. Yinchuan City, the ecological cost of economic growth is higher, economic development is more dependent on the ecological environment, the development mode did not achieve low-carbon transition.