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股市是反映投资者预期的市场,它与经济不是同步的,下半年的市场至少应该反映投资者对明年一季度宏观经济的看法。从1955到2000年美国股市,S&P500共经历了8次每股收益下降的阶段,而同期市场只有一次小幅下跌。我们不得不承认,供求关系决定了市场的短期价格水平。全部的非流通对价之后的市值约1.3万亿要在3年之内在心理上被市场消化,即使投资者预期这部分股票最后只释放30%,也需要有4000亿左右的增量资金来维持市场的信心。从长期来看,证券市场面临供求不平衡的状况,但是这并不能改变从目前向后12个月内这种扩容仅仅是预期而不是现实的状况,在支付对价解决股权分置问题以及发展资本市场的政策引导下,我们预期短期资金有向证券市场转移的倾向;如果在目前的股价水平上,市场有一个显著的下跌,那么供求平衡在短期之内反转的可能是相当大的,我们预测,从下半年这样的中期时间来看,市场孕育着很大的上涨动能。
The stock market is a market that reflects investors ’expectations. It is not synchronized with the economy. In the second half of the year, the market should at least reflect investors’ opinions on the macro economy in the first quarter of next year. From 1955 to 2000 in the United States stock market, S & P500 experienced a total of eight declines in earnings per share, while the market only a slight decline over the same period. We have to admit that the relationship between supply and demand determines the market’s short-term price level. The market value of all non-tradable consideration is about 1.3 trillion psychologically digested by the market within 3 years, even though investors expect this part of the stock to be released only 30% at the end, it also needs about 400 billion incremental funds to maintain the market Confidence. In the long run, the stock market is faced with the imbalance of supply and demand. However, this does not change the situation from the current 12 months to the present if it is just an expectation but not a reality. It is not the case of paying dividends to settle the issue of equity division, Under the guidance of market policies, we expect short-term funds to shift to the securities market. If there is a significant market decline at the current stock price level, the balance between supply and demand may be reversed in the short term. Forecast, from the second half of this medium-term point of view, the market is pregnant with great momentum.