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2006年是“十一五”规划的开局年,也将是中国经济在第一轮景气周期回落之后筑底并逐步上升进入第二轮景气周期的关键时期。具体指标的预测研究显示,在没有大的外部干扰的情况下,中国经济总体景气走势的转折点将在2006年年底或者2007年上半年之前到来。 2006年将是中国经济成功实现“软着陆”的关键时期。目前经济仍处于2002年以来的经济长周期的上升期,消费结构由吃穿向住行方面的升级带动了社会生产结构的调整,以及由此推动的工业化、城市化进程的全面加快,加之全球产业转移和投资加速的国际背景,奠定了工程机械行业将在本轮经济回升前先行进入高位增长状态。房地产行业自2004年以来受宏观调控影响较大,但发展仍较为迅速,房地产投资的结构更趋于合理,城市基础设施建设方面,由于2006 年是“十一五”规划的第一年,也是2008年奥运会建设的冲刺年;各项建设进入关键阶段,所以预计2006年投资仍会保持高增长,由此带动的相关产业的发展不容忽视。
The year 2006 will be the first year of the 11th Five-Year Plan and will also be a crucial period for the Chinese economy to bottom out after the first round of economic decline and gradually rise into the second round of economic cycles. The forecast of specific indicators shows that the turning point of the overall economic boom in China will come before the end of 2006 or the first half of 2007 without any major external disturbances. 2006 will be a crucial period for China’s economy to successfully achieve “soft landing.” At present, the economy is still in the rising period of economic long-term period since 2002. The upgrading of the consumption structure from eating and drinking to housing has led to the adjustment of social production structure and the all-round acceleration of the process of industrialization and urbanization driven by this. In addition, The international background of industrial transfer and investment acceleration laid the construction machinery industry into a high growth state before the current round of economic recovery. The real estate industry has been greatly affected by macroeconomic regulation and control since 2004, but its development is still relatively rapid. The structure of real estate investment tends to be more reasonable. As for urban infrastructure construction, since 2006 was the first year of the 11th Five-Year Plan and also Therefore, it is estimated that the investment will maintain its high growth in 2006. The development of the related industries will not be neglected.