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本文采用经济学的方法,论证了新农保能够减少农民自愿生育的子女数量,在一定程度上替代“养儿防老”的传统模式,具有防控农村社会养老风险的能力。但长期来看,农村生育政策与新农保的双管齐下,我国农村社会老龄化问题将更为严重,养老风险更为凸显。因此,要实现新农保的可持续发展,保证农村社会的和谐稳定,必须在继续加强财政支保力度的同时,协调新农保与农村生育政策的执行,同时建立健全农村社会养老风险的预警机制。
This article uses the economic method to demonstrate that the new agricultural insurance can reduce the number of children born by farmers voluntarily and replace the traditional mode of “raising children with old age prevention” to a certain extent, which has the ability to prevent and control the risk of rural social endowment. However, in the long run, the two-pronged approach to rural childbearing and new rural social security will make the problem of social aging in rural China more serious and the risk of endowment of the elderly will become even more prominent. Therefore, in order to realize the sustainable development of new rural social security and ensure the harmony and stability of rural society, we must continue to strengthen the financial support while coordinating the implementation of the new rural insurance and rural childbearing policy while establishing an early warning mechanism for rural social pension risk .