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深入分析甘孜州公路洪灾破坏机理,结合行业专家意见,遴选出地貌条件、地质条件、植被覆盖度、年均降雨量、暴雨强度、潜在洪灾公路里程和路网密度等7个指标,基于研究区公路洪灾现状和专家意见建立指标分级标准,将指标分为4级赋值构成评价指标体系;确定出各指标对孕灾环境的重要性程度以构建判断矩阵,用层次分析法确定出各指标的权重系数。运用模糊概率综合评价模型,将甘孜州的公路洪灾孕灾环境以县为单位划分成高中危险亚区与高高危险亚区、中低险亚区和中高危险亚区两级四档,分别占总面积的21.1%、25.3%、6.2%和47.3%。分区结果与近三年各县的洪灾发生程度较为吻合。划分结果合理,可从理论上为甘孜州的公路洪灾防治工作提供参考。
In-depth analysis of Ganzi Highway flood damage mechanism, combined with industry experts, select the topography, geological conditions, vegetation coverage, annual rainfall, storm intensity, potential road mileage and road network density of 7 indicators, based on the study area The present situation of highway floods and expert opinion to establish index grading standards, the index is divided into four levels of assignment constitutes an evaluation index system; to determine the degree of importance of each index on the disaster environment to build a judgment matrix, using analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each indicator coefficient. By using fuzzy probability comprehensive evaluation model, the environment of the disaster of highway flood disaster in Ganzi Autonomous Prefecture was divided into four grades of high school, high school, high school, 21.1%, 25.3%, 6.2% and 47.3% of the total area. The result of zoning is in good agreement with the occurrence of floods in all counties in recent three years. The division result is reasonable, which can provide a reference for the prevention and control of highway floods in Ganzi Prefecture theoretically.