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2012年,国际原油市场的前三季度行情和四季度行情主要围绕“中东”和“美国”两个热点展开。其中,中东的“地区动乱”与“OPEC增产”轮番登台,使油价跌宕起伏;美国总统选举年频频打出“石油储备”牌,打压油价成为在任总统的首选。两者叠加,油价最终形成了一个“M型、四步走”的走势(见图1)。油价的震荡幅度和走势爆发的突然性,使市场的多头和空头应接不暇。回顾2012年,哪些因素在主导国际油价的走势?展望2013年,国际油价又会受到哪些因素的影响,呈现出怎样的走势?
In 2012, the first three quarters of the international crude oil market and the fourth quarter quoted mainly focus on the hot spots “Middle East” and “United States”. Among them, the “turmoil in the Middle East” and the “OPEC increase production” in the Middle East made the ups and downs of oil prices. The United States presidential election frequently hit the “oil reserve” card to suppress oil prices becoming the first choice of the incumbent president. The two superposition, oil eventually formed a “M-type, four-step” trend (see Figure 1). The volatility of oil prices and the sudden burst of the trend, the market bulls and bears overwhelmed. Review 2012, what factors dominate the international oil price trend? Looking 2013, the international oil prices will be what factors, showing what kind of trend?