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为模拟燃油税费改革对国民经济与交通运输业的影响,以运输卫星账户为数据框架基础,构建了燃油-交通运输-经济的TSA-CGE模型。通过产品生产、价格传导、运输与燃油、收入与支出、贸易、社会福利、社会投资和总均衡模块,对燃油-交通运输-经济系统进行全面描述。设置燃油消费税率从5%上升到20%的燃油税费方案,模拟燃油税费方案对宏观经济与交通运输的影响。模拟结果表明:燃油税方案会促进投资、居民收入、政府储蓄的增长,但会对经济总量增长及进出口带来负面影响;燃油税费方案会带来铁路运输、城市交通总产出的增加,而导致其他方式运输产出的下降,各运输方式总体产出价格呈现上涨趋势;方案能促进国内成品油需求量的降低,提高油品利用效率。
In order to simulate the impact of fuel tax and fee reform on the national economy and transportation industry, a TSA-CGE model of fuel economy, transportation economy and economy was constructed based on the satellite account of transportation. A comprehensive description of the fuel-transportation-economy system through product production, price transmission, transportation and fuel, revenues and expenditures, trade, social welfare, social investment and total equilibrium modules. Set a fuel tax program that increases the rate of fuel consumption tax from 5% to 20% and simulates the impact of the fuel tax program on macroeconomics and transport. The simulation results show that the fuel tax scheme will promote the growth of investment, household income and government savings, but will have a negative impact on the growth of total economy and import and export; fuel tax scheme will bring about the total amount of railway transportation and urban traffic output As a result, the output of other modes of transportation will drop, and the overall output prices of all modes of transportation will show a rising trend. The scheme will promote the reduction of the demand for domestic refined products and increase the efficiency of oil utilization.