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经济系统预测越来越多的采用动态系统分析的方法,即研究离散时间序列动态过程的辨识,建模和预报,本文以最近发展起来的灰色系统建模方法和现代时间序列分析方法为基础。研究了辽宁省粮食产量的长期预测,在计算机上设计和完成了建模和预报软件,预报了1985～2000年的粮食产量。最后对粮食产量预报方法进行了比较和讨论。
Economic systems forecast more and more adopt the method of dynamic system analysis, that is to study the identification, modeling and forecasting of the discrete time series dynamic process. This article is based on the gray system modeling method developed recently and the modern time series analysis method. The long-term prediction of grain production in Liaoning Province was studied. The software for modeling and forecasting was designed and completed on the computer and the grain yield was forecasted from 1985 to 2000. Finally, the forecast methods of grain yield are compared and discussed.