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为研究自由飞行条件下给定间距的飞机碰撞风险评估问题,通过分析自由飞行下的飞机碰撞过程,分解碰撞事故发生过程,将与碰撞密切相关的风险因素或过程事件视为节点,并确定节点之间的关系,建立自由飞行状态下基于贝叶斯网络的碰撞风险模型;利用传统的位置误差模型,以及最大期望(EM)算法,求解节点事件的先验概率,导入贝叶斯网络模型,求得2架飞机碰撞风险。算例结果表明,用该模型计算出的碰撞风险与实际情况相符,算例中飞机之间保持8 n mile的间距是安全的;利用该模型可在满足安全目标水平条件下缩小最小安全间距,提高空域利用率。
In order to study the collision risk assessment of aircraft with a given distance under free flight condition, the collision process of the aircraft under free flight is analyzed, the collision process is decomposed, the risk factors or process events closely related to the collision are considered as nodes, and the node The collision risk model based on Bayesian network in free flight condition is established. By using the traditional position error model and the maximum expectation (EM) algorithm, the prior probability of node events is solved and the Bayesian network model is introduced. Obtained two aircraft collision risk. The results of the example show that the collision risk calculated by this model agrees with the actual situation. It is safe to keep the distance of 8 n mile between the aircraft in the example. By using this model, the minimum safety clearance can be reduced under the condition of meeting the safety target level, Improve airspace utilization.