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对于中国经济而言,经济过热担忧的根源是公布的固定资产投资(FDI)数据。据估计,2003年中国的FDI较上年增长了26.7％左右。2002年,名义固定资产投资额占GDP40％。同时,2003年中国的名义GDP增长率仅为14％。我们将上述两项增长率与2002年的数据进行比较后发现,投资目前占到中国GDP的44％,这显然是一个不健康的比例。但投资数据也许是公布的所有可疑数据中质量最差的一种。中国的经济数据有先天性的缺陷,原因在于:(A)这些数据不是建立在一个附
For China’s economy, the root cause of the overheating economy is the release of fixed-asset-investment (FDI) data. It is estimated that in 2003 China’s FDI increased by 26.7% over the previous year. In 2002, the nominal investment in fixed assets accounted for 40% of GDP. In the meantime, the nominal GDP growth rate of China in 2003 was only 14%. When we compare these two growth rates with the figures for 2002, we find that investment now accounts for 44% of China’s GDP, which is obviously an unhealthy proportion. However, the investment data may be the worst of all the suspicious data released. China’s economic data have inherent defects, because: (A) these data are not based on a