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本文使用中国29个省份1985-2007年的省际城乡居民消费数据系统考察城乡居民水平与异质消费的波动性及其福利效应,并对结果进行解释。研究结果表明:省级城乡居民的水平消费具有明显的波动性,但在控制了全国层面城乡的总体消费波动之后,省级城乡居民的异质消费波动性倾向于减弱;城乡居民水平消费波动的福利效应倾向于大于城乡居民异质消费波动的福利效应;封闭经济约束是导致水平消费的波动性及福利效应倾向于大于异质消费的波动性及福利效应的重要原因。为切实提高城乡居民福利,除了通过增加城乡居民收入来提高居民消费增长率之外,还需要进一步对外开放来降低居民消费波动性。
This paper uses the provincial urban and rural residents ’consumption data system in 29 provinces of China from 1985 to 2007 to examine the volatility and welfare effects of urban and rural residents’ levels and heterogeneous consumption, and explain the results. The results show that: the level of urban and rural residents of the provincial level consumption has obvious volatility, but after controlling the overall level of urban and rural household consumption fluctuations at the provincial level, provincial-level urban and rural residents tend to reduce the heterogeneous consumption volatility; urban and rural residents level consumption fluctuations The welfare effect tends to be greater than the welfare effect of the heterogeneous consumption fluctuation of urban and rural residents; and the closed economy constraint is the important reason that the volatility and welfare effect of horizontal consumption tend to be greater than the volatility and welfare effects of heterogeneous consumption. In order to effectively improve the urban and rural residents’ welfare, apart from increasing the growth rate of resident consumption by increasing the income of urban and rural residents, it is necessary to further open up to reduce the fluctuation of household consumption.