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目前,我国经济社会发展与资源、环境的矛盾日益突出,如果不从根本上改变高消耗、高污染、低效益的增长方式,能源、资源将难以为继。到2030年我国人口预计达到16亿,粮食需求总量约6.08亿t,施用化肥量6 800万t。国家投资将增加1 500亿元和外汇15亿美元,农民将增加1 000亿元购买化肥。我国磷矿贮量167亿t,其中富矿只有11亿t,再过10年,高浓度肥料所用的这些富矿就将殆尽。
At present, the contradictions between China’s economic and social development and resources and the environment have become increasingly prominent. Energy and resources will be unsustainable without fundamentally changing the pattern of growth that is characterized by high consumption, high pollution and low efficiency. By 2030, China’s population is expected to reach 1.6 billion with a total grain demand of about 608 million tons and 68 million tons of chemical fertilizer. National investment will increase by 150 billion yuan and foreign exchange by 1.5 billion U.S. dollars. Farmers will increase their purchases of chemical fertilizers by 100 billion yuan. China’s phosphate rock reserves of 16.7 billion tons, of which only 1.1 billion tons of rich ore, and then 10 years, high-concentration fertilizers used in these rich mines will be depleted.