论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨ARIMA模型在湖北省乙型病毒性肝炎(乙肝)病例时间分布特征分析中的应用。方法利用“传染病监测报告信息系统”中2005—2014年湖北省乙肝发病数据,分析病例的时间分布特征,建立ARIMA预测模型。结果乙肝报告发病率3~8月处于较高水平,12月最低;拟合得到的最佳模型为没有常数项的ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12模型。预测发现,未来湖北省乙肝发病水平与往年趋势大体一致,3~8月发病率处于较高水平。结论建立的ARIMA模型能较好地预测湖北省乙肝病例的时间趋势。
Objective To investigate the application of ARIMA model in the time distribution of hepatitis B (HB) in Hubei Province. Methods Using the data of incidence of hepatitis B in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2014 in the Infectious Disease Surveillance Reporting Information System, the time distribution characteristics of the cases were analyzed to establish ARIMA prediction model. Results The incidence of hepatitis B was at a high level from March to August and was lowest in December. The best fitting model was ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 without any constant term. The forecast found that the future level of hepatitis B incidence in Hubei Province in line with previous trends generally consistent, 3 to 8 months at a high level of incidence. Conclusion The established ARIMA model can better predict the time trend of hepatitis B cases in Hubei Province.