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利用数值模拟方法研究了气候异常对临汾盆地地下水系统的影响。在介绍临汾盆地水文地质条件的基础上,运用地下水模拟软件GMS建立了研究区潜水和中层承压水的水流模型,并根据地下水实测水位资料对模型进行了识别和验证。通过对临汾盆地近50年降水量的分析,确定将连续出现两个特殊干旱年(降水频率为95%)作为气候异常变化情形,运用建立的数值模型对气候异常条件下地下水水位的变化进行了模拟,结果表明:气候异常条件下潜水水位将下降0.3～0.9m,承压水水位将下降2.5～5m。承压水目前是本区地下水的主要开采对象,异常条件下承压水水位的下降可能会使该地区地面沉降进一步加剧。研究降水量异常变化对临汾盆地地下水资源的影响对于该区域水资源的开发利用和规划管理等方面具有重要的现实意义。
The effect of climate anomalies on the groundwater system in Linfen basin was studied by using numerical simulation method. Based on the introduction of hydrogeological conditions in Linfen basin, the groundwater flow simulation software GMS was used to establish the water flow model of submersible and medium pressure water in the study area. The model was identified and verified based on the measured groundwater level data. Based on the analysis of the precipitation in Linfen basin in recent 50 years, it is confirmed that there will be two consecutive special dry years (the frequency of precipitation is 95%) as the anomalous climate change. The numerical model is established to analyze the change of groundwater level under the anomalous climate conditions The results show that the submarine water level will decrease 0.3 ~ 0.9m and the pressure water level will drop 2.5 ~ 5m under the abnormal climate conditions. Confined water is the main target of groundwater exploitation in this area. The drop of confined water level under abnormal conditions may further aggravate the land subsidence in this area. Studying the influence of abnormal precipitation on groundwater resources in Linfen basin is of great practical significance for the development and utilization of water resources and planning and management in this area.