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本文通过BK模型,以改革以来的我国入境旅游收入和人数为指标,对我国入境旅游业的波动特征进行了实证分析,结果表明,旅游业收入衰退变量的一阶和四阶滞后项都显著大于零,人数波动的三阶滞后衰退变量显著大于零,说明不论是收入还是人数,其所受到的冲击都是正向冲击较负向冲击大,从而有力的证明了我国入境旅游业存在着显著的陡升缓降型非对称性。因此我们要充分利用入境旅游波动的非对称性特征,在国际经济形势好转时,加大对入境旅游的宣传和入境旅游的促销力度,把我国的入境旅游推向一个新的高潮。
Based on the BK model and the income and number of inbound tourism in China since the reform as an indicator, this paper empirically analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of inbound tourism in our country. The results show that the first and fourth lagged terms of tourism income decline are significantly larger than the first The third-order lagged recessionary variable with zero and fluctuating population is significantly larger than zero, indicating that both the income and the number of people are subject to more positive impact than negative impact, which proves that there is a significant steep inbound tourism in China Ascending or descending asymmetry. Therefore, we must take full advantage of the asymmetric characteristics of inbound tourism fluctuations. When the international economic situation improves, we will step up promotion of inbound tourism and inbound tourism, and push our inbound tourism to a new height.