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目的了解镍接触人群胃癌病死率变化趋势,为制定胃癌防治策略提供科学依据。方法收集2001—2010年镍接触人群的职工人数与胃癌死亡病例;计算胃癌粗病死率,以2000年甘肃省人口为标准计算标化病死率;计算其平均增长速度及年估计百分比变化(EAPC),预测胃癌病死率。结果 2001—2010年职工共计432 526人,10年因肿瘤死亡人数为925人,居死因顺位第一位。其中胃癌死亡172例,病死率为39.77/10万。男性和女性的标化病死率分别为30.15/10万、15.96/10万,男性胃癌病死率高于女性,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。胃癌总病死率及男性病死率分别与年份呈正相关(r=0.841,P=0.002;r=0.823,P=0.003),平均增长速度分别为9.42%和9.01%。男性、总胃癌EAPC分别为7.79%、8.65%;根据EAPC进行预测,结果显示,到2015年胃癌病死率分别增长至93.18/10万、71.81/10万。35岁以后胃癌病死率随着年龄的增加而升高,胃癌病死率在55岁以后呈迅速上升趋势,≥85岁达到高峰;65岁以前除45～岁组,各年龄组胃癌病死率增加,其中35～岁组增长606.21%;65岁以后胃癌病死率百分比均为负值。平均死亡年龄64.53岁。结论镍接触人群胃癌病死率呈上升趋势,其中男性、高龄为胃癌的高危人群,应加强胃癌的预防与控制工作。
Objective To understand the trend of gastric cancer mortality in nickel-exposed population and provide a scientific basis for the development of gastric cancer prevention and control strategies. Methods The number of Ni-exposed workers and the number of deaths from gastric cancer from 2001 to 2010 were collected. The crude fatality rate of gastric cancer was calculated. The standardized mortality rate was calculated based on the population of Gansu Province in 2000. The average growth rate and annual percentage change (EAPC) , Predict gastric cancer mortality. Results A total of 432 526 workers were employed in 2001-2010. The number of deaths from cancer was 925 in 10 years, ranking the first place in the list. 172 cases of gastric cancer deaths, the fatality rate was 39.77 / 100000. The standard case fatality rates of males and females were 30.15 / lakh and 15.96 / lakh, respectively. The mortality of gastric cancer in males was higher than that in females (P <0.05). The total case fatality rate and the male case fatality rate of gastric cancer were positively correlated with the years (r = 0.841, P = 0.002; r = 0.823, P = 0.003). The average growth rates were 9.42% and 9.01% respectively. The overall EAPC of males and their total gastric cancer were 7.79% and 8.65% respectively. According to the prediction of EAPC, the gastric cancer mortality rate increased to 93.18 / 100000 and 71.81 / 100000 respectively by 2015. After the age of 35, the case fatality rate of gastric cancer increased with age. The case fatality rate of gastric cancer increased rapidly after 55 years old and peaked at 85 years old. Before the age of 65 except 45 years old group, the gastric cancer mortality increased in all age groups, Among them, the growth of 35 ~ group was 606.21%; the percentage of gastric cancer after 65 years old was negative. The average age of death is 64.53 years old. Conclusion The mortality rate of gastric cancer in nickel-exposed population is on the rise. Men and elderly patients at high risk of gastric cancer should strengthen the prevention and control of gastric cancer.