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根据《建筑工程冬期施工规程》(JGJ104-2011)的规定,运用概率论与数理统计的理论,确定了冬期施工的起始日期与结束日期是随机变量,并假设它成正态分布;以乌鲁木齐地区为例,通过新疆气象局提供的气象资料,做出频率直方图,验证了其是正态分布;计算出乌鲁木齐地区具有不同保证率的冬期施工的起始日期与结束日期,为该地区施工企业规避工程冻害风险,合理确定冬期施工的起始日期与结束日期提供了参考,也为总监理工程师控制工程冻害风险,审查施工企业编制的施工组织设计提供了理论依据。
According to the provisions of “Winter Construction Procedures for Construction Engineering” (JGJ104-2011), using the theory of probability theory and mathematical statistics, it is determined that the start date and the end date of winter construction are random variables, and it is assumed to be a normal distribution. In Urumqi Area as an example, the frequency histogram is made according to the meteorological data provided by Xinjiang Meteorological Administration, which verifies that it is a normal distribution. The start date and the end date of winter construction with different guarantee rates in Urumqi area are calculated, Enterprises to avoid engineering risk of frost damage, a reasonable determination of the start date and end date of winter construction provides a reference, but also for the chief supervision engineer to control the risk of frost damage, construction companies review the construction organization design provides a theoretical basis.