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本文根据新兴市场崛起和大国之间博弈的新特点,着重分析全球经济失衡的货币因素,揭示现行国际货币体系及区域货币安排(如欧元)的弊端,为重构国际货币体系提供理论支持和政策建议。本文认为,国际货币体系取决于各国政治、经济力量的对比。随着新兴市场国家的崛起,美元和欧元的地位将弱化,逐步形成多种储备货币竞争的局面。新的国际货币体系将是大国之间实行浮动汇率,给予小国选择固定汇率或浮动汇率的自由,并对实行固定汇率的国家附加约束条件。这既可以为货币政策独立性和实现国内物价稳定提供支持,也可以防止一国通过操纵汇率获得长期的比较优势。
Based on the emerging characteristics of emerging markets and the game between big powers, this paper focuses on analyzing the monetary factors of the global economic imbalance, reveals the drawbacks of the current international monetary system and regional monetary arrangements (such as the euro), and provides theoretical support and policies for the reconstruction of the international monetary system Suggest. This paper argues that the international monetary system depends on the comparison of the political and economic forces of various countries. With the rise of emerging market countries, the position of the U.S. dollar and the euro will be weakened, and various competition for reserve currencies will be gradually formed. The new international monetary system will be a floating exchange rate between big powers, giving small countries the freedom to choose between a fixed exchange rate and a floating exchange rate, and attaching additional constraints to those countries that have fixed exchange rates. This will not only provide support for the independence of monetary policy and domestic price stability, but also prevent a country from gaining a long-term comparative advantage by manipulating the exchange rate.