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在当今市场形势多变的情况下,如何进行企业的市场预测,特别是新建企业的市场预测,一直是困扰人们的一个难题。与老企业相比,由于新建企业存在着生产条件尚不稳定,市场销售历史数据缺乏等因素,预测难度就更大一些。笔者借鉴滚动计划(主要用于编制长期规划)思想,结合自己的管理信息系统开发的工作实践,摸索出了一种行之有效,又简单方便的滚动预测法。一、基本模型的建立现在常用的市场预测模型多是建立在对过去大量历史数据进行处理的基础之上的。如回归预测法,需要对大量的历史数据进行观察分析,研究其发展变化
In the current situation of changing market conditions, how to predict the market of enterprises, especially the market prediction of new enterprises, has always been a difficult problem for people. Compared with old enterprises, due to factors such as unstable production conditions and lack of historical data on market sales in newly built companies, the prediction is more difficult. The author draws on the idea of rolling plans (mainly used for the preparation of long-term plans), combined with his own work practices for the development of management information systems, and has found out an effective, simple and convenient rolling forecasting method. First, the establishment of the basic model Most commonly used market forecast models are based on the processing of a large amount of historical data in the past. For example, the regression prediction method requires observing and analyzing a large amount of historical data to study its development and changes.