基于概率模型的具有短车道的信号交叉口进口道通行能力研究

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分析了短车道效应对进口道拓宽车道通行能力的影响,基于交通流理论和概率论,提出了考虑短车道排队阻塞情况下的信号交叉口进口道通行能力计算模型。该模型根据进口道中3种转向车流的比例、短车道几何特征以及信号周期计算一个信号周期中两种不同短车效应的发生概率,并计算各自情况下的进口道通行能力。进一步探讨了该模型中转弯车辆比例、短车道长度、信号周期长度、绿信比的变化对通行能力的影响。研究发现短车道对通行能力的主要影响因素包括左转车比例、短车道长度和绿信比,且当左转车比例在50%左右时,增加短车道长度能显著提高通行能力。此外,使用西安和上海的实测数据对本模型和HCM2000通行能力模型进行验证和对比,本模型的计算结果比HCM2000模型更加精确,误差小于200 pcu/h。 Based on the traffic flow theory and probability theory, the paper analyzes the influence of short-track effect on the capacity of entrance lane widening. Based on the traffic flow theory and probability theory, this paper proposes a calculation model of traffic capacity at the signalized intersection considering the short-lane congestion. The model calculates the probability of occurrence of two different short-range effects in a signal cycle according to the ratio of the three types of steering traffic in the inlet road, the geometric characteristics of the short lane and the signal cycle, and calculates the traffic capacity of the inlet road in each case. Furthermore, the influence of turning vehicle ratio, short lane length, signal cycle length and green ratio on traffic capacity is also discussed. The study found that the main influencing factors of short lane traffic capacity include the ratio of left turn to turn, short lane length and green ratio, and when the left turn ratio is about 50%, increasing short lane length can significantly improve traffic capacity. In addition, the measured data of Xi’an and Shanghai are used to verify and compare this model and the HCM2000 traffic capacity model. The calculation results of this model are more accurate than the HCM2000 model and the error is less than 200 pcu / h.
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