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本文在研究了经验性综合预报的基础上,提出前兆异常所提供的地震综合信息量P和异常时序的平均时间T及强信息区展布半径R_1三个物理量,采用数学物理方法导出了一个预报地震三要素的综合计算预报方法。此方法使用台网中各异常的地点和出现时序,可定量地计算出未来地震的时间、地点、震级及相应的标准误差范围。文中列举了对华北地区台网具有监测能力的区域内发生的几次中强地震的计算结果,取得了良好的效果。
Based on the empirical comprehensive forecasting, this paper presents three synthetic quantities of earthquake information P and anomalous time series T provided by precursory anomalies and R_1 distribution of strong information region. A mathematical physics method is used to derive a forecast Earthquake three elements of the comprehensive calculation and forecasting method. This method uses the locations and occurrences of anomalies in the network to calculate the time, location, magnitude and corresponding standard error range of future earthquakes quantitatively. In this paper, the calculation results of several moderate earthquakes occurred in the area with monitoring ability in the network of North China are listed, and good results have been achieved.