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[目的]分析冰雹与对流性强降水天气的物理量和雷达参数。[方法]利用2002～2008年济南雷达资料结合探空资料对降雹和强降水天气的物理量和雷达参数特征进行对比分析。[结果]SI愈小愈有利于降雹天气生成,K>35℃时产生强降水天气的概率明显增加,K<20℃时强降水天气产生概率明显降低。CAPE值大于1500J/KG时,产生冰雹天气的概率明显减小,而产生强降水的概率明显增加。当风切变小于5m/s时产生冰雹单体的概率较小,风切变大于20m/s时产生冰雹天气的概率很大。冰雹单体雷达预报指标:VIL值达到35kg/m2(5月)、43kg/m2(6、7月),单体高度大于9km,最大反射率因子大于60dBz,强中心高度达到3.3km(5月),4.3km(6月),5.5km(7月);强降水单体VIL值最大一般在25kg/m2以下。[结论]为暴雨和冰雹的预测提供依据。
[Objective] The physical quantity and radar parameters of hail and convective heavy precipitation weather were analyzed. [Method] The physical quantity and radar parameter characteristics of hail and heavy precipitation weather were compared by using radar data of Jinan from 2002 to 2008. [Result] The smaller the SI was, the better the hail weather was. The probability of strong precipitation was obviously increased when K> 35 ℃, and the probability of heavy precipitation was obviously decreased when K <20 ℃. When the CAPE value is more than 1500J / KG, the probability of hail weather is obviously reduced, and the probability of producing heavy precipitation is obviously increased. When the wind shear is less than 5m / s, the probability of generating hailstones is small, and the probability of hail weather is great when the wind shear is more than 20m / s. Hail Monomer Radar Prediction Index: VIL value reaches 35kg / m2 (May), 43kg / m2 (June and July), monomer height is greater than 9km, maximum reflectance factor is greater than 60dBz and strong center height is 3.3km (May ), 4.3km (June) and 5.5km (July). The maximum VIL value of heavy precipitation monomer is generally below 25kg / m2. [Conclusion] It provides the basis for forecasting storm and hail.