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为提高济宁滨湖区东亚飞蝗的长期预报准确率,用微机以近10年的资料中筛选出上年残蝗密度(X1)、9月份平均气温(X2)等预报因子,建立了东亚飞蝗夏蝗发生密度的预报数学模型:Y=-0.612962121+0.05671876964X1+0.04263729416X2;筛选出上年秋残蝗面积(X1)、10月份湖水位(X3)等预报因子,建立了夏蝗发生面积的预报数学模型:Y=10.03378675+0.6631445638X1-0.24734864468X3。以上预测模型经过资料验证和2007年应用,预报准确率较高。
In order to improve the accuracy of the long-term forecast of the migratory locusts in East Lake in Jining, a forecast of the density (X1) of the locusts last year and the mean temperature (X2) in September from last 10 years by computer was made. The forecast mathematical model of the occurrence density of summer locust: Y = -0.612962121 + 0.05671876964X1 + 0.04263729416X2; forecast the area of the locust (X1) in autumn and the lake level (X3) in October and forecast the area of locust occurrence Mathematical model: Y = 10.03378675 + 0.6631445638X1-0.24734864468X3. The above forecasting model after data validation and application in 2007, the forecast accuracy is high.