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一季度GDP增长录得7%,创六年新低。同期经济活动、通胀数据亦令人失望,工业生产深处困境,经济面临严重下行压力。三月月工业产出增加值远低于预期,仅增长5.6%,即意味当月单月GDP增长或已跌至6%左右。此外,通胀加速下滑,进一步推高实际融资成本和企业的债务负担,为经济雪上加霜。我们认为当前增长和通胀双双逼近底线,政策宽松加码刻不容缓。
First quarter GDP growth recorded 7%, a record low for six years. In the same period, economic activity and inflation data were also disappointing. Industrial production was in deep trouble and the economy was under severe downward pressure. The value added of industrial output in March was much lower than expected, a mere 5.6% increase, which means the monthly single month GDP growth has dropped to about 6%. In addition, the accelerating decline in inflation accelerated the actual financing costs and the debt burden of enterprises, further aggravating the economy. We think both the current growth and inflation are approaching the bottom line and the easing of policies is imminent.