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1引言由于地球轨道几何形状周期性的摆动，导致接收太阳辐射量的周期变化，从而引起对标志全球气候年际变化的热带太平洋表面水温和南方涛动指数周期性的研究，并得出了具有2～7a的周期，且又以3～4a为主的结果．然而进一步研究表明，地球轨道变化对气候的线性驱动，从能量上只
1 INTRODUCTION Due to the periodic orbits of the Earth’s orbit geometry, periodic changes in the amount of solar radiation received result in a periodic study of the tropical Pacific surface water temperature and the Southern Oscillation Index, which is indicative of the global change in the global climate. 2 ~ 7a cycle, and again 3 ~ 4a based results. However, further studies show that the linear orbit of the Earth’s orbit changes linearly from the energy only