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中期财政规划是预算管理的重要工具。本文从规范角度分析了中期财政规划的目标、功能定位、实施路径和条件因素,目标是防止财政跨期安排“事”与“钱”脱节的不确定性,增强可预见性和可持续性,化解财政风险;功能定位在提高政府治理能力;路径包括四个环节:预测与评估、决策与配置、执行与遵从、绩效与激励相容机制,并在关键环节根据条件、制约因素进一步分层、分步推进。在此基础上,简要评估了我国中期财政规划实践进展及问题,并提出相关政策建议:进一步提高对中期财政规划的重视程度;完善体制机制增强收支可预期性,完善技术能力提高预测的准确性;健全保障机制,增强中期财政规划决策的长期思维;进一步增强中期财政规划的约束力;强化激励相容机制建设,提高政府部门治理能力;完善配套制度、条件等。
Medium-term fiscal planning is an important tool for budget management. This article analyzes the objective, function, path and conditions of medium-term fiscal planning from the perspective of norms. The objective is to prevent the uncertainty of inter-period financial arrangement from “money” and to enhance predictability and Sustainable development, and resolving financial risks. The function is positioned to improve the government’s governance capacity. The path includes four links: forecasting and assessment, decision-making and allocation, implementation and compliance, performance and incentives, and the key links are based on conditions and constraints Further stratification, step by step. On this basis, a brief assessment of China’s medium-term financial planning practices and problems, and put forward relevant policy recommendations: to further improve the degree of emphasis on medium-term fiscal planning; improve the institutional mechanisms to enhance revenue expectations, improve the accuracy of technical ability to improve the forecast Improve the security mechanism and enhance the long-term thinking of medium-term financial planning and decision-making; further enhance the binding power of medium-term fiscal planning; strengthen the construction of incentive compatibility mechanism to improve the governance capacity of government departments; improve the supporting systems and conditions.