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目的探讨2005-2011年中国大陆地区淋病疫情的时空分布特征。方法以2005-2011年全国31个省、自治区和直辖市(未包括台湾省、香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区)的淋病疫情监测数据和人口信息为研究对象,利用ArcGIS 9.3软件建立地理信息数据库,采用GeoDa 0.95i和SaTScan 9.1.1软件进行全局、局部空间自相关分析和时空扫描聚类分析,确定淋病时空热点区域。结果 2005-2011年全国淋病病例时空上呈明显聚集性分布,各年度全局型空间自相关系数均有统计学意义(P<0.01)。局部自相关系数提示2005-2010年江苏、上海、浙江处于(高,高)区域,2006年开始(高,高)区域增加了福建省。2006-2010年新疆处于(高,低)区域。2007,2009-2010年,北京处于(高,低)区域。时空扫描分析发现所有的聚类时间段均集中在2005-2007年。一级聚类区域位于长三角地区(江苏、上海和浙江),相对危险度为4.20;二级聚类区域包含五个区域,分别是广东、广西与海南地区、北京地区、宁夏地区、新疆地区、重庆地区,相对危险度在1.45～2.25之间。结论淋病发病存在明显的时空聚集,各时空聚集区将为探索有针对性的防控措施提供参考。
Objective To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of gonorrhea in mainland China from 2005 to 2011. Methods The surveillance data and population information of gonorrhea epidemic in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (excluding Taiwan Province, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Macao Special Administrative Region) from 2005 to 2011 were selected as research objects. ArcGIS 9.3 software was used to establish the geographic information database. GeoDa 0.95i and SaTScan 9.1.1 software for global, local spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal scanning cluster analysis to determine gonorrhea space-time hot spots. Results The distribution of gonorrhea cases in China from 2005 to 2011 showed obvious aggregation in time and space. The global spatial autocorrelation coefficient of each year was statistically significant (P <0.01). Local autocorrelation coefficient suggests Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang are in the (high and high) regions from 2005 to 2010, and Fujian Province was added to the region (high and high) since 2006. Xinjiang is in the (high and low) regions from 2006-2010. 2007, 2009 - 2010, Beijing is in the (high, low) area. Spatio-temporal scanning analysis found that all the clustering time periods concentrated in 2005-2007. The first-level clustering area is located in the Yangtze River Delta (Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang) with a relative risk of 4.20. The second-level clustering area contains five areas, namely Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan, Beijing, Ningxia and Xinjiang In Chongqing, the relative risk is between 1.45 and 2.25. Conclusion There is a clear spatial and temporal aggregation of gonorrhea, and each spatial-temporal accumulation area will provide a reference for exploring targeted prevention and control measures.