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在农业干旱风险分析模式中引入自然灾害风险分析的基本理论,系统剖析了农业干旱灾害风险分析的基本要素(致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体),结合自然灾害风险分析基本模式构建了农业干旱风险分析基本模式。根据人工神经网络构建了农业干旱风险分析模型,并应用于河南省农业干旱风险分析中。结果表明,该模型对河南省农业干旱具有一定模拟能力,其模拟误差约为20%;河南省农业干旱整体形势严峻,且随着农业干旱频率的减小其成灾面积损失呈指数趋势增加。
The basic theory of risk analysis of natural disasters is introduced into the model of agricultural drought risk analysis. The basic elements of risk analysis of agricultural drought disasters (disaster-causing factors, pregnant environment and disaster-bearing body) are systematically analyzed. Based on the basic model of natural disaster risk analysis, Agricultural drought risk analysis of the basic model. According to the artificial neural network, the agricultural drought risk analysis model is built and applied to the analysis of agricultural drought risk in Henan Province. The results show that the model has a certain ability to simulate agricultural drought in Henan Province, and the simulation error is about 20%. The overall situation of agricultural drought in Henan Province is severe, and the loss of disaster area increases exponentially with the decreasing frequency of agricultural drought.