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有关中国教育回报率的多数经验研究都认为,中国教育水平的提高对经济增长没有显著促进作用。本文认为,现有研究之所以得出这一结论,主要是因为它们未考虑到人力资本在公私部门间的配置结构变化对教育回报率的影响。由于教育人力资本在公私部门间的生产能力存在差异,它在部门间配置结构的变化会影响教育对经济增长的贡献。本文利用2000-2010年中国跨省面板数据,通过公共部门工资溢价来刻画人力资本在公私部门间配置结构的变化对教育经济增长效应的影响,重新估计了中国教育水平提高对经济增长的贡献。本文研究表明,如果剔除人力资本在公私部门间配置结构的影响,我国教育水平的提高对经济增长具有显著的促进效应,我国教育对经济增长的贡献同其他国家差异不大。本文还对我国不同省份间教育的产出效应进行了比较,发现我国各地区教育产出弹性的差别不大,但教育的边际产出差异巨大。
Most empirical studies on the rate of return on education in China agree that the improvement of China’s education level does not significantly promote economic growth. This paper argues that the existing studies conclude this conclusion mainly because they do not take into account the impact of changes in the allocation of human capital between public and private sectors on the rate of return on education. Due to the differences in the productive capacity of educational human capital between the public and private sectors, its changes in the allocation of departments between departments affect the contribution of education to economic growth. In this paper, we use the cross-provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2010 to depict the effect of changes in the allocation of human capital between public and private sectors on the economic growth effect of education through public sector wage premiums and re-estimate the contribution made by China’s education level to economic growth. This study shows that if we exclude the impact of human capital allocation between public and private sectors, the improvement of education in our country has a significant promotion effect on economic growth. The contribution of our education to economic growth is not significantly different from that of other countries. This paper also compares the output effects of education among different provinces in our country and finds that there is not much difference in the elasticity of education output among different provinces in China. However, the marginal output of education varies greatly.