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中国粮食市场是经济转型期市场发展的典型代表。本文利用 1988～ 1995年间各省 每旬的粮食价格数据资料 ,估计各时期地区间粮食贸易的等界模型 ,验证了经济转型时期 市场发育的多样性特点。作者估计了每一时期的套利率、交易成本和自给自足率。结果 表明 ,贸易壁垒单因素无法解释中国市场发展的进程和发育程度 ;基础设施瓶颈、运行机 制、生产专业化政策等也是影响市场发育的重要因素 ;政策制定者应该关注市场基础设施 建设中的瓶颈问题并减少对地区间市场贸易的直接行政干预。
China’s grain market is a typical representative of the market development during the economic transition. Based on the data of grain price per ten days of every province from 1988 to 1995, this paper estimated the boundary model of grain trade in different regions and verified the diversity of market development in the period of economic transition. The authors estimate the arbitrage rates, transaction costs, and self-sufficiency rates for each period. The results show that the single factor of trade barriers can not explain the progress and development of China’s market; the bottleneck of infrastructure, operating mechanism and specialization of production are also important factors affecting market development. Policy-makers should pay attention to the bottleneck in the market infrastructure construction Problems and reduce the direct administrative intervention in the inter-regional market trade.