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本文首先建立了进出口局部均衡模型,采用Engle-Granger协整模型对人民币实际有效汇率变动对辽宁省进出口贸易的长期影响和短期冲击效应进行了实证研究,进一步构建了包含经济总量、价格水平、财政收入、居民消费、人民币汇率的向量自回归模型,基于Granger因果检验和脉冲响应函数判断了变量间的动态关系,结果表明,进出口贸易的收入弹性大于汇率弹性,人民币汇率变动对于贸易不平衡的调整效果并不显著,人民币汇率波动对经济增长会产生一定程度的负效应,随着人民币双向波动的趋势不断增强,并接近均衡水平,更要有效发挥汇率在实现总量平衡、结构调整及经济发展转型中的作用。
In this paper, we first establish a partial equilibrium model of import and export, using the Engle-Granger cointegration model empirical study of the long-term impact and short-term impact of the real effective exchange rate of RMB changes on the import and export trade in Liaoning Province, The results show that the income elasticity of import and export trade is greater than the exchange rate elasticity, and the change of RMB exchange rate is of great significance to the trade The adjustment effect of imbalance is not significant. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will have a certain negative effect on economic growth. As the trend of two-way fluctuation of RMB continues to increase and close to the equilibrium level, moreover, the exchange rate must be brought into full play to balance the total output and the structure Adjustment and economic development and transformation of the role.