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在充分调研国际海运CO2排放量计算方法及预测模型的基础上,建立了中国国际海运CO2排放量预测模型,并结合航运经济与物流研究所(ISL)等国际海运相关机构发布的数据以及政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的基准情景,对中国2010—2050年国际海运CO2排放量进行了预测。并进一步分析了国际海事组织(IMO)意推的市场机制(碳税)对中国进出口贸易和国际海运运营成本的影响,为中国气候变化国际谈判、国际海运减排谈判和行业发展等提出相关政策建议。结果表明,未来20～30年,中国国际海运CO2排放量仍将快速增长。基准情景下2050年中国国际海运CO2排放量将达到2 337～5 790万t,为2010年的0.7～1.8倍。当碳税税率在15～45美元/t(以CO2为基准)时,将导致中国国际海运运营成本提高0.96%～9.76%。
Based on the full investigation of the calculation methods and prediction models of international seaborne CO2 emissions, a forecast model of China’s international seaborne CO2 emissions has been established. Combined with data released by international shipping agencies such as the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) The baseline scenario of the IPCC Special Emissions Scenario (SRES) predicts China’s CO2 emissions from international shipping by 2010-2050. And further analyzes the influence of the market mechanism (carbon tax) proposed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on China’s import and export trade and the cost of international seaborne operations so as to make relevant suggestions for China’s international negotiations on climate change, international maritime emission reduction negotiations and industry development policy suggestion. The results show that in the next 20 to 30 years, China’s international shipping CO2 emissions will continue to grow rapidly. Under the reference scenario, China’s international seaborne CO2 emissions in 2050 will reach 2337-59700 thousand tons, 0.7 times to 1.8 times in 2010. When the carbon tax rate of 15 to 45 US dollars / t (with CO2 as a benchmark), will result in China’s international maritime operations costs increased 0.96% ~ 9.76%.