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30年前,也就是上世纪70年代的一段萧条期里出现了一种经济现象,它的表现与它的名字一样令人厌恶,那就是滞涨。它是世界发展碰壁后发出的声音,它是零增长与通货膨胀的结合体。它给世界经济带来了生存危机,许多人因此认为,世界已经达到了增长和繁荣的极限。受惩罚的日子被推迟了,但是如今,在时隔30年之后,一场至少算是较为温和的滞涨重新出现,而且情况有可能变得更加糟糕。我们带着30年前提出的那个问题回到未来:我们如何才能把强劲的经济增长与能源、粮食和水等重要大宗商品的全球供应短缺问题结合起来?这值得我们把早期发生的滞涨与当前所经历的痛苦做一番比较,从而帮助我们找到出路。事实上,这一轮资源紧张造成的困难将比上一轮更难逾越,因为世界经济的规模已经扩大了许多,但短缺的局势却更为严峻。
Thirty years ago, in the midst of a depression of the 1970s, there was an economic phenomenon whose performance was as repugnant as its name was stagflation. It is the voice of the world after the run-off, which is a combination of zero growth and inflation. It has brought a crisis of survival to the world economy and many people therefore believe that the world has reached the limit of growth and prosperity. The days of impunity have been postponed, but now, after a lapse of 30 years, a lagging, at least moderate, stagnation reappears and the situation is likely to get worse. We are back to the future with the question posed 30 years ago: How can we combine strong economic growth with the global supply shortages of major commodities such as energy, food and water? That deserves our support from the early stagnation Compare the pain experienced so far and help us find a way out. In fact, the difficulties caused by this round of resource shortage will be more insurmountable than the previous one because the world economy has expanded its scale much, but the shortage situation is even more severe.