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目的 :探讨影响肾细胞癌患者预后的因素。方法 :运用 Cox模型对 10 4例肾细胞癌手术患者的预后进行单因素和多因素分析。结果 :影响肾细胞癌患者预后的因素有临床分期、根治性肾癌切除术、血尿和术前肾动脉栓塞。据此建立肾细胞癌术后生存预测方程 :h(t,X) =ho(t) exp(1.6 35 9X6 - 1.44 73X1 0 - 1.0 146 X1 6 +0 .985 4X1 9) ,运用此方程对生存 5年以上及生存不足 5年而死亡的 5 1例肾细胞癌手术患者的预后进行预测 ,并将预测结果与随访的实际结果进行比较 ,其灵敏度、特异度及符合率分别为 73.3%、83.3%和 80 .4% ,两者基本相符。结论 :根治性肾癌切除术和术前肾动脉栓塞是影响肾细胞癌患者预后的保护因子 ,能延长生存时间 ;临床分期和血尿为危险因子 ,可缩短生存时间。
Objective: To explore the factors affecting the prognosis of patients with renal cell carcinoma. Methods: Cox model was used to evaluate the prognosis of 104 patients with renal cell carcinoma by single factor and multivariate analysis. Results: The factors affecting the prognosis of patients with renal cell carcinoma clinical stage, radical nephrectomy, hematuria and preoperative renal artery embolism. Based on this, we established the postoperative survival prediction equation of renal cell carcinoma: h (t, X) = ho (t) exp (1.6 35 9X6 - 1.44 73X1 0 - 1.0 146 X1 6 +0.985 4X1 9) The prognosis of 51 patients with renal cell carcinoma who had died within 5 years and survived less than 5 years were predicted. The sensitivity, specificity and coincidence rates of the predictive value and follow-up results were 73.3%, 83.3 % And 80 .4%, the two basically consistent. Conclusions: Radical renal cell carcinoma resection and preoperative renal artery embolization are the protective factors that affect the prognosis of patients with renal cell carcinoma, which can prolong the survival time. The clinical stage and hematuria are risk factors, which can shorten the survival time.