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本文使用生产函数法估计我国改革开放以来的潜在产出增长率,并识别其内生断点,讨论不同阶段增长动能转换。研究发现,我国当前经济增速放缓所面临的问题在于,过去我国经济高速增长阶段所依赖的改革红利、城镇化红利和全球化红利逐渐消失,传统增长动力减弱,缺少新动能。中等收入国家增长经验表明,结构调整是未来我国新动能的可能来源,可以通过生产结构调整、收入分配结构调整和技术进步结构调整,提升生产效率、拉动国内需求、促进结构升级、转变增长模式,拉动经济增长。
In this paper, we use the production function method to estimate the potential output growth rate of China since its reform and opening up and identify its endogenous breakpoints, and discuss the conversion of growth kinetic energy at different stages. The study found that the current slowdown in economic growth in China is faced with the problems that the reform dividends, urbanization dividends and global dividends relied on in the past during the period of rapid economic growth disappeared, the traditional growth momentum weakened, and the lack of new momentum. The experience of growth in middle-income countries shows that structural adjustment is a possible source of new kinetic energy for China in the future. Through structural adjustment of production, readjustment of income distribution and structural adjustment of technological progress, production efficiency can be enhanced, domestic demand can be stimulated, structural upgrading can be promoted, Stimulate economic growth.