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摘要:以博弈论为基础,以战时铁路军事运输保障为背景,建立了红蓝双方动态非接触对抗的决策模型;针对战时铁路军事运输保障决策中的随机问题,提出了天气影响因子和随机影响因子,反映战场随机环境对红蓝双方的影响,并建立了随机期望值决策模型。通过模拟,合理设置战场随机状态,客观分析输送过程,为战时铁路军事运输保障决策提供有力的决策支持,方法直观、有效,具有很好的应用前景。
关键词:铁路军事运输保障;随机环境;决策;博弈论
中图分类号:F530文献标识码:A
Abstract: This paper on the basis of game theory, and taking the military railway transport guarantee on war time as the background, we established an opposed dynamic and non-contact decision-making model. Aiming at the problems in military decision-making under stochastic condition in uncertainty, we put forward the factors of weather and stochastic influence, which reflects the influence of stochastic condition on the red and the blue, and establishes stochastic opposed decision-making models in anticipant value and in correlative chance way farther. It can be seen from the simulating results that the models can dispose the stochastic status in battlefield reasonably, analyse the transport result impersonally, and offer a powerful decision-making sustaining for military command and control. The proposed method is very practical and effective, and has a good applying future.
Key words: military railway transport guarantee; stochastic condition; decision-making; game theory
0引言
作战指挥决策是为完成和依据各种条件而进行的选择作战目标和选择实现目标行动策略的思维活动。其中,每项指挥活动都是一个不确定性的动态过程,最终的决策效果取决于动态过程中每一决策阶段的局势都要朝着有利于自己的方向发展。信息化条件下的战争,战场空间增大,交战空间减小,前后方的概念日益模糊,因此,铁路军事运输始终在高强度的对抗环境中进行。此外,由于信息化战争的复杂性、隐蔽性、欺骗性、对抗性越来越凸显,大量的决策可能在不确定环境中进行,因此,研究不确定条件下的动态指挥决策优化方法及其应用显得非常重要。针对以上问题,本文以战时铁路运输保障非接触对抗环境为背景,在一般博弈论的基础上,建立了随机环境下动态决策模型,并进行模拟验证。
关键词:铁路军事运输保障;随机环境;决策;博弈论
中图分类号:F530文献标识码:A
Abstract: This paper on the basis of game theory, and taking the military railway transport guarantee on war time as the background, we established an opposed dynamic and non-contact decision-making model. Aiming at the problems in military decision-making under stochastic condition in uncertainty, we put forward the factors of weather and stochastic influence, which reflects the influence of stochastic condition on the red and the blue, and establishes stochastic opposed decision-making models in anticipant value and in correlative chance way farther. It can be seen from the simulating results that the models can dispose the stochastic status in battlefield reasonably, analyse the transport result impersonally, and offer a powerful decision-making sustaining for military command and control. The proposed method is very practical and effective, and has a good applying future.
Key words: military railway transport guarantee; stochastic condition; decision-making; game theory
0引言
作战指挥决策是为完成和依据各种条件而进行的选择作战目标和选择实现目标行动策略的思维活动。其中,每项指挥活动都是一个不确定性的动态过程,最终的决策效果取决于动态过程中每一决策阶段的局势都要朝着有利于自己的方向发展。信息化条件下的战争,战场空间增大,交战空间减小,前后方的概念日益模糊,因此,铁路军事运输始终在高强度的对抗环境中进行。此外,由于信息化战争的复杂性、隐蔽性、欺骗性、对抗性越来越凸显,大量的决策可能在不确定环境中进行,因此,研究不确定条件下的动态指挥决策优化方法及其应用显得非常重要。针对以上问题,本文以战时铁路运输保障非接触对抗环境为背景,在一般博弈论的基础上,建立了随机环境下动态决策模型,并进行模拟验证。