【摘 要】
：
2015年底开始的这一轮房价上涨,已经成为当前国民经济中最热点的话题。相对于股市、债市的低迷和CPI的平稳,房价上涨一枝独秀。本文尝试从货币供给和需求的角度出发,探讨房价
【机 构】
：
中央财经大学金融学院,中央财经大学证券期货研究所,
论文部分内容阅读
2015年底开始的这一轮房价上涨,已经成为当前国民经济中最热点的话题。相对于股市、债市的低迷和CPI的平稳,房价上涨一枝独秀。本文尝试从货币供给和需求的角度出发,探讨房价上涨的推动因素,分析房地产市场的资金来源,并结合资产配置探讨金融市场和经济结构的不平衡。总体而言,本文的分析发现,房价以及其他资产价格的波动背后都有货币因素的推动。但房市与股市、实体经济之间的冷热对比,更多折射出的是实体经济虚化、经济下行压力加大的严峻现实。
This round of housing price increases since the end of 2015 has become the hottest topic in the current national economy. Relative to the stock market, the bond market downturn and the CPI stable, rising prices thriving. This article attempts to explore the driving factors of rising house prices from the perspective of money supply and demand, analyzes the sources of funds in the real estate market, and discusses the imbalance between the financial markets and the economic structure in light of the asset allocation. Overall, the analysis in this paper finds that monetary factors are behind the fluctuations in house prices and other asset prices. However, the contrast between the real estate market, the stock market and the real economy shows more the realities of the real economy and the severe downward pressure on the economy.
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