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本文对中国长久产能过剩的形成机理给出一个垄断竞争一般均衡体系下的演化解释:初始场景:无政府干预下产能自然性过剩→第二场景:资源软约束形成产能扭曲性过剩→第三场景:环境硬约束加剧产能扭曲性过剩→第四场景:去产能。作为基准点和参照系,初始场景无政府干预下行业产能存在一个受企业内因生产成本和企业外因市场需求共同决定的自然性过剩水平。第二场景资源软约束使得行业产能在初始场景自然性过剩的基础上形成扭曲性过剩:物力资源软约束使得行业出现产能重复建设的新增企业进入市场而扭曲性过剩,人力资源软约束使得行业出现虽有产能但无产出的僵尸企业退出市场而扭曲性过剩。第三场景环境硬约束使得行业产能在第二场景扭曲性过剩的基础上加剧扭曲性过剩:环境直接硬约束使得行业再次上演虽有产能但无产出的僵尸企业退出市场而产能扭曲性过剩加剧,环境间接硬约束使得行业再次上演产能重复建设的新增企业进入市场而产能扭曲性过剩加剧。第四场景去产能时可将与资源软约束和环境硬约束造成的新基本面相适宜的最优企业数目削减量与保有量、最优企业产能削减量与保有量、最优行业产能削减量与保有量作为去产能的行动目标。该演化体系在产业组织SCP研究范式下将产能过剩形成机理从局部均衡分析推进至一般均衡分析;与发达国家产能过剩机理解释不同,该演化体系对中国这类发展中、赶超型经济体在体制机制不断改进完善进程中产能过剩却一直长久存在的长久机理给出了一个演化解释;且现存产能过剩政府失灵论的诸多观点是该演化体系在物力资源软约束时的特例。
This paper gives a evolutionary explanation of the formation mechanism of China’s long-term overcapacity under the general equilibrium system of monopolistic competition: Initial scenario: excess natural capacity under the condition of no government intervention → scenario 2: soft constraint of resources leads to excess capacity distortion → Third scenario : Environmental rigid constraints intensify excess capacity distortion → Fourth scene: to capacity. As a reference point and reference frame, under the initial scenario of no government intervention, there is a surplus of natural capacity that is determined by the combination of internal production costs and external demands of enterprises. In the second scenario, the soft constraint of resources causes the industry capacity to generate a twisting excess based on the natural excess of the initial scenario: the soft constraint of material resources makes the newly added enterprises with redundant production capacity enter the market with distorted excess, and the soft constraint of human resources makes the industry The emergence of a viable but unproductive zombie business out of the market and distorted excess. The third scenario environment hard constraints make the industry more than the twisting surplus in the second scenario based on exacerbated the distortion of excess: environmental hard direct constraint makes the industry once again staged although the capacity but unproductive zombie enterprises to withdraw from the market and production distortion worse, Indirect hard constraints of the environment make the industry once again put on the production of redundant construction of new entrants into the market and more excess capacity distortion. The fourth scenario to the production capacity can be soft constraints and environmental constraints caused by hard constraints on the new fundamentals suitable number of the optimal number of enterprises to reduce and keep the amount of savings, the optimal enterprise capacity reduction and conservation, the optimal amount of industrial capacity reduction and Keeping capacity as a goal of action to capacity. This evolutionary system promoted the formation mechanism of overcapacity from the partial equilibrium analysis to the general equilibrium analysis under the SCP paradigm of industrial organization. Different from the explanations of overcapacity mechanism in developed countries, this evolutionary system is of great significance for the development of China’s catch-up economies Institutional Mechanisms The long-standing mechanism of overcapacity in the process of perfecting and perpetuating gives an evolutionary explanation; and many of the existing views of the government overcapacity in government failure are the special cases of the evolutionary system in the soft constraints of material resources.