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偏离份额模型(Shift-Share model)是当下研究区域经济增长问题较为常用的统计分析方法之一。该模型的最初使用者是经济学家Creamer,被其用于研究美国20世纪三十年代制造业劳动力就业分布变化。SSM模型通过对就业人数、劳动生产率、产值、收入等经济变量的分解和描述,分析区域经济增长的时间和空间变化。本文先介绍了SSM模型的大致内容,然后联系四川省产业现状,在剔除了价格变动因素的前提下,运用shift-share模型分析了2011年-2013年间九大产业的区域竞争力。
Shift-Share model is one of the most commonly used statistical methods to study regional economic growth. The original user of the model was economist Creamer, who was used to study the changes in the employment distribution of manufacturing labor in the United States in the 1930s. The SSM model analyzes the time and space changes of regional economic growth by decomposing and describing the economic variables such as employment, labor productivity, output value and income. This article first introduces the general content of the SSM model, and then contacts with the status quo of industries in Sichuan province, excluding the factors of price changes, using the shift-share model to analyze the regional competitiveness of nine industries in 2011-2013.