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从需求角度考虑中国经济的发展前景,总的一个结论是,国际需求将减少一块,国内需求有可能增加一块。减少的一块和增加的一块是否能够抵消,或是否大致抵消,将左右着今年整个中国经济的成长。我个人的结论是增加的一块与减少的一块,大致上能够抵消。从全年经济情况来看,相对平稳的走势,是今年整个经济的主格调,也就是说今年整体经济的表现将在7％到8％期间运行,不会出现大起大落。 为什么这么说?减少的这块不言而喻,今年整体的世界经济出现了衰减的趋势。国际权威组织已经做过预测,今年全球经济增长率大致在2％左右,比去年的4.7％将有一个明显的降低。同样,世界贸易今年有可能在6％左右,
Considering the development prospects of China’s economy from a demand perspective, the general conclusion is that international demand will be reduced by one and domestic demand may increase by one. Whether the decrease and the increase will be able to offset or almost cancel out will affect the growth of the entire Chinese economy this year. My personal conclusion is that the added one and the reduced one can be roughly offset. Judging from the economic situation in the year, the relatively steady trend is the main theme of the economy this year. In other words, the performance of the overall economy will be running at 7% to 8% this year, with no ups and downs. Why do you say this piece of reduction goes without saying that the overall world economy has been declining this year. International authoritative organizations have already predicted that the global economic growth will be roughly 2% this year, a marked decrease from last year’s 4.7%. Likewise, world trade may be around 6% this year,