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建筑业能够带动经济增长这一观点一经提出就受到许多学者的认同,但这一观点缺乏理论依据。本文基于时间序列分析的单位根检验,格兰杰因果关系检验,协整理论和误差修正模型对上海市建筑业与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,上海市建筑业与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但建筑业的短期波动对经济增长的影响并不大。因此上海市政府不能通过短期内增加建筑业的投资来拉动经济增长。
The view that the construction industry can drive economic growth has been accepted by many scholars once proposed, but this view lacks theoretical basis. Based on the unit root test, Granger causality test, cointegration theory and error correction model of time series analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between Shanghai’s construction industry and economic growth. The results show that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between construction industry and economic growth in Shanghai, but the short-term fluctuations of construction industry have little effect on economic growth. Therefore, the Shanghai municipal government can not stimulate economic growth by increasing construction investment in the short term.