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GDP与外贸数据的扭曲夸大了中国外贸依存度及外贸失衡度。GDP的扭曲主要来自汇率法与购买力平价法估算的差异;贸易数据扭曲包括:关境统计的重复计算以及由产权问题导致的国际贸易物流与资金流的不一致。对2007年我国实际外贸依存度及其失衡度的重估显示:2007年中国的外贸依存度从官方统计的68.02%下调为31.59%,外贸失衡度也从官方统计的10.13%下调为2.11%。所谓“中国操纵汇率”的指责是毫无根据的。
The distortion of GDP and foreign trade data exaggerates the extent of China’s dependence on foreign trade and the imbalance of foreign trade. The distortion of GDP mainly comes from the difference between the exchange rate method and the PPP method. The distortion of trade data includes the double counting of customs statistics and the inconsistency of international trade logistics and capital flow caused by property rights issues. The revaluation of China’s actual dependence on foreign trade and its imbalances in 2007 shows that the degree of dependence on foreign trade in China was reduced from 68.02% in official statistics to 31.59% in 2007 and that of foreign trade imbalances to 2.11% from 10.13% in official statistics. The accusation of “manipulating the exchange rate of China” is baseless.