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基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,对欧亚地震带划分了26个板内地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了这些地震区大(巨)震事件孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:达卡与科什阿加赤地震区未来有巨震发生;托斯亚地震区未来有大震或巨震发生;于田、布哈拉、比尔詹德、加兹温-塞姆南、巴尔坎纳巴德-内沙布尔、大不里士、埃里温-盖贝莱、布加勒斯特北部、伊士麦、科林斯、杜布罗夫尼克与罗马地震区未来有大震发生;凯瑟利地震区未来有强震或大震发生;洛扎-林芝、普杰、比什凯克、费尔干纳、希比尔甘-杜尚别、拉什卡尔加、艾布西雷尔、开罗与巴塞罗那-巴伦西亚地震区未来有强震发生;伊斯坦布尔地震区当前孕育周期主震事件已发生,目前余震活动尚未结束,很可能发生MW7.3级左右余震.本文所得结论可供有关国家相关部门参考,以采取有效防震减灾措施.
Based on the theory of brittle fracture in the multi-locked zone of the seismogenic fault, 26 intraplate seismic zones are divided into Eurasian seismic zones. From the perspective of the identification of the incubation period and the identification of the main shock event, the occurrence of large (giant) earthquakes in these seismogenic zones The results show that there will be a great earthquake in the future in Dhaka and Kosh Agatheka; a major earthquake or a huge earthquake will occur in the Tusya earthquake area in the future; Yutian, Bukhara, Bill Zhande, Qazvin - Semnan, Balkanabad - Nesebar, Tabriz, Yerevan - Gabele, northern Bucharest, Izmir, Corinth, Dubrovnik and Rome A major earthquake will occur in the future earthquake area; a strong earthquake or a major earthquake will occur in the future in the Kaiselei earthquake area; and Rosa-Nyingchi, Pujie, Bishkek, Fergana, Sibirgan-Dushanbe, Rush A strong earthquake will occur in the future in Calgary, Abu Sehreir, Cairo and Barcelona-Valencia regions; the main earthquake event in the current gestation cycle of the Istanbul earthquake zone has taken place and the current aftershock activity is not yet over and is likely to have MW7.3 or so Aftershocks.The conclusion of this paper is available for reference by the relevant state departments to mining Effective earthquake disaster reduction measures.