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综合历史地震、地质信息,汾渭地震带存在平均重现周期2000年左右的M≥7级的强震系列.该强震系的强震在时间上是非平稳分布,具有丛集发震的特征.其累计频度N与时间t有近似的指数函数关系:(N=Ae~(Bt)(其中A=0.863,b=0.0018).将强震系的N—t关系和震级—频度关系相结合预测,从1980年起,未来85年(置信度98%)或未来183年(置信度95%)不会发生M≥7级强震.由非齐次泊松概率模型,未来50—100年汾渭地震带发生M≥7级强震的概率为3-6%.这较均匀油松模型的概率低得多.
Based on the comprehensive historical seismology, geological information and the Fen-Wei seismic belt, there is a series of strong earthquakes with an M ≥ 7 level with an average recurrence period of about 2000. The strong earthquakes in the strong earthquakes are non-stationary in time and have the characteristics of cluster seismogenic activity. The cumulative frequency N and time t have exponential relations: (N = Ae ~ (Bt) (where A = 0.863, b = 0.0018). The relationship between N-t and the magnitude- According to the prediction, M ≥ 7 earthquakes will not occur in the next 85 years (98% confidence) or 183 years (95% confidence) in 1980. By non-homogeneous Poisson probability model, the future 50-100 The probability of M≥7 earthquakes occurring in the Fenghuang seismic belt in the year is 3-6%, which is much lower than the probability of a uniform Pinus tabulaeformis model.