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据法国国际天然气信息中心(Cedigaz)预测,2005-2010年世界天然气消费年均增长率约为2.5%,拉丁美洲、亚太、非洲和中东地区的天然气消费年增长率可达4%甚至更高。2010年之后,世界天然气消费增长速度有可能减缓,预计年均增速不超过2.2%。世界天然气行业的发展前景不仅将受到因气价升高而造成的日益加剧的各种能源间竞争的影响,还将受到由于产气国投资不足、技术有限所造成的产量约束以及政策变化带来的影响。为了保持供需平衡,天然气的运输量将大大增加,天然气管道运输和LNG运输的管理将更加趋于复杂。预计2006-2010年,世界LNG需求将以每年大约9%的速度稳步增长。2010年之后,苏伊士以东和以西地区的许多国家有可能加入LNG进口国的行列。到2015年,世界LNG贸易在天然气总贸易量中的份额将从2005年的22.3%增加到30%。天然气行业的新发展,特别是行业建设投资规模的扩大、更加开放的竞争环境将逐步促使形成一个新的天然气市场运行模式,从而有利于世界天然气供需平衡。
According to the forecast by Cedigaz, the average annual growth rate of world natural gas consumption in 2005-2010 is about 2.5%, while the annual growth rate of natural gas consumption in Latin America, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East will be 4% or more. After 2010, the growth rate of world natural gas consumption is likely to slow down and the average annual growth rate is expected to not exceed 2.2%. The development prospects of the world’s natural gas industry will not only be affected by the intensifying competition among different energy sources caused by the rising gas prices, but also by the output constraints caused by underinvestment in the gas-producing countries, limited technology and policy changes Impact. In order to maintain the balance between supply and demand, natural gas transportation will greatly increase, natural gas pipeline transportation and LNG transportation management will become more and more complicated. It is expected that from 2006 to 2010, the world LNG demand will grow steadily at an annual rate of about 9%. After 2010, many countries east and west of Suez are likely to join LNG importers. By 2015, the world LNG trade share in total natural gas trade will increase from 22.3% in 2005 to 30%. The new development of the natural gas industry, especially the expansion of investment in industrial construction, and a more open competitive environment will gradually lead to the formation of a new mode of operation of the natural gas market, which will be in favor of the world’s natural gas supply and demand balance.